Meridian Kenya / Methods and back-test report · Client-only
Methods and back-tests, 2026
The full evidence behind our forecasts: how they are built, how they are tested and where they fall short.
Overview
Re-run from five start years, the forecast found 53% of the top growers on average.
Random choice would find 10%. The report sets out every test, including the ones the models fail, so investment committees and development finance teams can judge the evidence for themselves.
What's inside
- The model comparison and why the chosen model won
- Back-tests from five start years, with interval coverage and Brier scores
- Calibration of breakout odds, pooled and forward in time
- Tests against outcomes measured without light: new buildings and mapped businesses
- Known weaknesses, including the 2022 night-light jump
Preview
| Start year | Outcome years | Coverage | Rank correlation | Brier | Top-decile hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Client-onlyThe methods and back-test report is part of our client service.
Clients receive a personal access link that opens every report. To request this one, write to research@meridiankenya.com with your organisation and the decision you are working on, or complete the client onboarding form.